Monday, February 21, 2011

Defense Wins Championships? I'll take the QB

Everyone has heard the myth "defense wins championships." This used to be true, but now it seems that the defense can get you there, but the offense wins in the playoffs--when it matters. I do not argue that a defense is not needed; a Super Bowl team must be balanced. But the offense is what comes through. When was the last time a "nobody special" QB won the Super Bowl? I mean a true nobody. Magical seasons make a somebody (even Brad Johnson had his year). Jeff Hostetler (NYG, XXV) is probably the first of that category to win a Super Bowl. He had a very efficient game, completing 20 of 32 passes for 222 yards, with one touchdown and no interceptions. To win a Super Bowl, you need a good quarterback.

The playoff teams watching this Super Bowl did not all have that quarterback. Matt Hasselbeck (SEA) is getting older and showing it. Jay Cutler (CHI) fell short, although he is behind a dreadful line. Matt Cassel (KC) looked horrible in the playoffs. The Jets' Mark Sanchez definitely needs to improve if his team wants to get over the hump and advance to the big game.

There are 45 Super Bowls, so obviously there are 45 Super Bowl MVP's. Of those 45, eight are defenders, one a return specialist. Of the 36 offensive players (counting repeats) to win the award, 24 are quarterbacks.

Having a franchise QB cannot be emphasized enough. The Redskins need one and the draft is the perfect time to grab one. Most mock drafts have shown that defenders will fill the top 10 picks, which gives the Redskins their pick at players to improve their offense, with holes at every position but left tackle and tight end.

Sunday, February 20, 2011

Kaepernick goes under the radar

Quarterbacks have been the talk of the 2011 draft class. You hear all sorts of names thrown into the mix, but not the name Colin Kaepernick. The multi-talented quarterback of the Nevada Wolf Pack was a four-year starter. He showed steady improvement every year.
Passing Stats
YEARTEAM CMP ATT PCT YDS AVG TD LNG INT RAT
2007NEV133 247 53.8 2175 8.8 19 74 3 150.77
2008NEV208 383 54.3 2849 7.4 22 75 7 132.10
2009NEV166 282 58.9 2052 7.3 20 56 6 139.14
2010NEV233 359 64.9 3022 8.4 21 79 8 150.46
Rushing Stats
YEARTEAM ATT YDS AVG LNG TD FD FUM LOST
2007NEV105 593 5.6 55 6 0 0 0
2008NEV161 1130 7.0 66 17 0 0 0
2009NEV161 1183 7.3 75 16 0 0 0
2010NEV173 1206 7.0 59 20 0 0
 stats from ESPN
As you can see, His  completion percentage went up every year. He also tamed his eagerness to scramble, standing in the pocket more often and making the subtle moves required of a pocket passer, but at the same time he was able to use his running more advantageously.

Kaepernick first caught my attention in the Senior Bowl practices. He showed off a strong arm, but that didn't set him aside. When hitting receivers on timing routes, he threw the ball at the right time with perfection. Few rookie QB's can make those throws out of college. Kaepernick can make the tough throws and he has all of the tangibles you desire in a QB. The biggest question was whether or not he could become a pocket passer who possesses the athleticism to scramble. Michael Vick was that QB this season. Can Kaepernick make the same transition? That is what coaches and GM's will be asking themselves come draft day.

Wednesday, February 16, 2011

Possible picks for #10

The Redskins have the 10th overall pick in April's draft. They can go a number of ways with this pick, having holes at nearly every position.

QB
  1. Missouri's Blaine Gabbert is considered the top QB entering the draft. He has accuracy issues but has shown good decision-making, arm strength, and movement in the pocket. If he falls to 10, the Redskins will take a careful look.
  2. Cam Newton (Auburn) impressed everyone with his workout for the media. On paper, he has everything you want, but his intangibles have been questioned. He does not fit Shanahan's system, but is still someone to pay attention to draft day.
  3. Jake Locker is who everyone is talking about. The senior out of Washington has an incredible arm along with surprising athleticism. He has never thrown above 60% completion percentage, which is troubling. If a coach believes his accuracy can be fixed, then there is no reason not to take him. There have been rumors that Shanahan is very interested in Locker, but Shanahan has done little to show his targets.
WR
  1. If A.J. Green of Georgia is still on the board, it will be a no brainer. He has all the talent to step in and become an elite receiver. It is highly unlikely that he will drop to this spot, but so was the case for Brian Orakpo.
  2. Julio Jones (Alabama) has the size to be a top receiver, but his route running has been questioned. It may be a bit early for the Redskins to look at him, but they will certainly look.
  3. Titus Young has come out of Boise State and is drawing comparisons to Desean Jackson. He impressed everyone at the Senior Bowl practices with his ability to go downfield and make the catch. His speed and concentration are invaluable, but teams question whether or not he can run all routes. Think of how Mike Wallace was--first he was simply a fast deep threat. Now Wallace is one of the top receivers in the league. At pick 10, Young would be a major stretch.
DE/OLB
  1. Von Miller (Texas A&M) is considered the best outside linebacker in the draft. He has been compared to Clay Matthews and backed the comparisons up with a terrific Senior Bowl, single-handedly disrupting the North team's drives.
  2. It is simple--without Orakpo, the Redskins' pass rush is nonexistent. The Redskins need another pass rushing linebacker to help of Orakpo. North Carolina's Robert Quinn is an exceptional pass rusher and is athletic enough to play linebacker. He dominated Castanzo, who is widely considered the top tackle in the draft.
  3. Aldon Smith (Missouri) is a raw talent. He is a great athlete who needs to be coached up to the NFL level. He could go this early, but may even drop to the 2nd round. It all depends if the team thinks it can coach up such a raw player, and Shanahan has always shown full confidence in his staff.
Other possibilities here are CB and DL. Brown is likely to stay in D.C. and the 10th pick would be too early for an interior lineman.

Tuesday, February 15, 2011

NFL offers additional $5K to SB "almost attendees"

Everyone is aware by now that Jerry Jones' greed created a horrible mess, displacing roughly 400 fans in an attempt to set a Super Bowl attendance record.  The NFL originally offered the fans $2,400 (three times the face value their seats) and a ticket to next year's Super Bowl. They then announced another option: a ticket to the Super Bowl of the fan's choosing along with travel and hotel expenses paid. Now they have another option. The fan can take the higher of the two options: $5000 or complete reimbursement of documented Super Bowl expenses.

The situation has caused some fans to file lawsuits against the NFL and Dallas Cowboys. Here is a video of a fan and his attorney, who are involved in the class action suit.

At first it may seem like the NFL was just prioritizing the safety of its fans, but documents released after the game show that the Cowboys were slow to respond to requests for building permits needed to install the seats. This was all caused by Jerry Jones poor preparation and the Cowboys' inability to follow procedure and make deadlines. And after all of the trouble, Jones did not come close to the record.

Monday, February 14, 2011

First tag official, Fat Albert in more trouble, combine boycott

Today, Mankins received the franchise tag from the Patriots. It is unknown whether or not franchise tags will exist with the new CBA, but the NFL encouraged teams to use them. So it is clear-- the Patriots will pay what it takes to keep Mankins.

In other news, Haynesworth, shortly after being charged with assault, has been accused of sexual assault. I'd like to give him the benefit of the doubt but it's Haynesworth and he's earned his poor reputation. Let's just hope he is soon unaffiliated with the Redskins.

DeMaurice Smith, head of the NFL Players Association, has talked to agents about possibly boycotting the Rookie Combine. It seems that he is working harder to hurt negotiations, rather than help them. Players boycotting the combine is unlikely, but there is also discussion of boycotting April's draft.  This would not do much. The draft would occur as normal, but the players simply would not be at the event in New York.

Sunday, February 13, 2011

Mankins to be franchised, Guard still a need.

The Patriots have made it clear that they will place the franchise tag on Pro Bowl Guard Mankins. This means he will not enter free agency and the Redskins cannot sign him. That means we still have an awful interior line. Williams and Brown were solid, so I expect us to resign Brown.  Before going over my plan, let's look at the needs.

QB-- McNabb is simply not the future, and Grossman was nothing special. The Redskins need a franchise QB.
RB-- Who knows if Torrain is special, but he showed promise. No reason not to stick with him.
FB-- Sellers is getting older, but the staff likes Young and will have him split time with Sellers.
WR-- Moss' future is uncertain. He is scheduled to enter free agency and the Redskins have not shown what their plans are.
TE-- Cooley is not going anywhere.
OT-- As I said, Williams and Brown were solid.
OG-- The younger guys stepped up late in the season but they do not have the talent to be long-time starters.
C-- Rabach had a pretty bad season and is getting old.

NT-- The Redskins have nobody to play nose tackle. They are pursuing Shaun Rogers, but so is half the league.
DE-- There are fill-ins but no sure starter at this position.
OLB-- We all know Orakpo is a monster but the Redskins need another pass-rusher on the other side. Chris Wilson could be the answer, but coaches have not shown confidence in him.
ILB-- Fletcher is getting old. McIntosh had a decent year (he switched from outside in the 4-3 to inside in the 3-4) but is scheduled to become a free agent.
CB-- Hall is coming off a Pro Bowl year and Rogers is scheduled for free agency. His future with the Redskins seems dependent on if the coaches believe he can stay healthy.
FS-- Kareem Moore played below expectations, but still has the trust of the coaches.
SS-- Landry was set to start in the Pro Bowl but couldn't because of injury. Before the injury, he was in the Defensive Player of the Year talk.

With the 10th overall pick, the Redskins could select a QB. But at #10, the talent would not be worthy of the pick. With 10, the Redskins could take a pass rusher, a DL, or WR. I suggest trading back for mid-late 1st and 2nd rounders.  This will allow the Redskins to take an interior lineman (perhaps Pounce). Then, with the 2nd rounders, they can take a QB, then a DL. The QB would be Colin Kaepernick. Many people question whether he can be an NFL QB, but I see excellence. He is exceptional at timing routes, which is key in a West Coast offense. He just needs to learn how to move within the pocket and not immediately try to scramble. There are many worthy DT's in the draft, but not many NT's. So grabbing one of these will improve our line and ensure that a defense with so much talent will not put up such pathetic numbers. Later in the draft I see the Redskins grabbing DB's and possibly WR's and ILB's.

On another note, congrats to Jerry Gray! He was recently hired as the Titans' Defensive Coordinator. Gray used to be the DB coach in D.C. He's a great guy and an excellent coach.